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Generic Directions for All Financial Planning Software If you're still shopping, the best evaluation results are obtained by looking at the demo, while following along as you read the directions. It also helps to download and read the text that explains the reports. The "demo" is the actual spreadsheet, password protected, without the formulas so it's much smaller. You won't be able to do anything but look at it. You'll receive a working non-protected file after you pay for it. If you try to print the demo from Internet Explorer, or you just click Print in Excel, it won't work well. Tips for working and printing in Excel are here, here, and here. The pages on the free sample comprehensive financial plan print better than the demo. When you're using the program, things go better if you print these directions. If you have Excel 2007, then first save the workbook as an xlsx workbook. You switch between the sheets by either clicking on the sheet tab names at the bottom left of the Excel window, or by pressing *Page Up or Down (pressing the control key and either the Page Up or Page Down key at the same time). Before getting started, save an unused copy of all of the files in a separate folder, so you'll always have the original unaltered files. Then if you do something like delete a formula, you can easily fix it by copying it from these original files. Then save files you've worked on using a different file name (and into a different folder). If you don't like a file being read-only, go to Save As, and then go to Tools, General Options, uncheck the Read Only box, then click Save. More tips for saving and organizing files are here. Programs usually come without sample input data, but be sure to delete all of the sample/client input (everything in green-shaded cells) before inputting your data. You should make CD backups of all of your work on a monthly basis, and store the CD in a safe location, but not where your computer is. More PC tips are here. If you're seeing this: ####, then either increase your Zoom magnification number (View, Zoom), or make the column width wider. If you see this: #REF! or #DIV/0! after completing your input, please respond to get a new program immediately. This means data was lost either via e-mail, unzipping, or while making a CD. If a red Error! dialog box comes up saying your input must be confined to a range of values, and your input was within that range, then the problem is that the input cell doesn't accept pennies. Round the value to the nearest dollar and try again. If you're an investing consumer (not a professional financial planner working with clients), then when you read "client, prospect, or they" just think "you." You would be both the advisor and the client (or spouse). Read about financial planning software support here. Read about financial planning software integration (sharing data between modules) here. Read how to present sample reports to prospects and clients. How to send financial plans to clients via e-mail, without sending the whole program is explained on the Excel help page, here. These are not the directions for the Model Portfolios, they are here. Summary of the Asset Allocation ProcessCurrent means what the investor currently holds, or "old." Proposed means recommended, or "new." · The beginning of the process is always financial discovery, in this case, using the Investment Fact Finder. This gets you all of the information you'll need to manage someone's money. Answers to those very important questions are used as inputs into the asset allocation calculators. Having the Investment Fact Finder in front of you at all times when you're making asset allocation reports will help greatly in minimizing mistakes. For investors, you only need to answer and score the multiple-choice questions to determine your investment risk tolerance category. Then you'll need to gather their current holdings to input. The two ways to do this are to either use piles of statements or use an Asset Fact Finder. · Then you input data into the GAAC (General Asset Allocation Calculator), the three left sheets labeled Childless Mix Calculator or Family Mix Calculator, or Retired Guideline Mix Calc. This creates a recommended asset allocation mix between the eight major asset classes. · Then you input what they currently own, and distribute the contents of (mixed) assets (like mutual funds) among the eight major asset classes. · Then you use the pie-chart section, and/or Sources and Applications of Funds, to compare their current asset allocation mix, to the recommended allocation mix. · Then you shuffle assets around in the proposed section to move their portfolio as close as you want to the recommended asset allocation mix. This is now the proposed portfolio - or what you're going to recommend. For investors, this is what you would implement for yourself. · Then you input rate of return estimates to show the difference in returns, and long-term growth of investment portfolios, after your brilliant recommendations. Your proposed portfolio should have an overall better rate of return, unless you're deliberately trying to reduce risk exposure.You can also input changes to mix, contributions, and withdrawals annually. · Then when you're done, and have dealt with the check numbers, and formatting, you just print, and add this asset allocation study to the rest of the financial plan. Tips for printing in Excel are here. Directions Step 1: Open the spreadsheet named Asset Allocation.xls. Save it using a different name to preserve the original spreadsheet. Tips for saving and organizing client files are here. Some people are confused because the file name for the demo (asset_allocation.xls) is similar. Step 2: It opens up to the Input sheet. This part of the asset allocation software calculates the desired, recommended, or proposed allocation, or mix of asset classes you're shooting for. Input the (clients') name you want to show on the top of the Asset Allocator sheet into cell C4. The remainder of the inputs are drop-down menu choices. When a cell is selected, a down arrow shows up at the bottom right asking you to select from the menu. Detailed instructions on how to make your selection is in the text box that pops up for each cell. After you have made a selection for all of the input cells (C5 - C13) only one of the next three sheets will be active, and will display the recommended asset allocation mix at the bottom. The other two mix calculation sheets will be blank - this is the way it's supposed to work. The numbers inside the matrix are percentages to be held in each asset class. They will then populate the Guideline Asset Allocation Mix area of the Asset Allocator sheet (the middle row above the pie charts). If you prefer to customize your own asset allocation mix recommendations, then there are three unprotected calculators on the far right sheet tab. How to use them is explained in a section below. Step 3: Go to the Asset Allocator sheet. Input the clients' name into cell A3. The row of colored cells in the middle section near the pie charts, between Current/Old and Proposed/New called Guideline Allocation. It's row 48 in the original spreadsheet and demo. These are automatically populated from one of the calculation sheets to the left. These cells are not protected, so you can just input whatever you want. Rows 47 - 49 on the Asset Allocator sheet are the total asset class percentages for the eight asset classes. These are summed up in cells K47 and K49. At the right of these three rows you'll see three numbers with percent signs. Always check to make sure they are 100%. All this is doing is adding up all of the individual percentage amounts in all of the eight asset classes to ensure it is 100%. If they don't, then you made a mistake somewhere and need to fix it. The same concept is used when you're inputting the contents of individual assets in both the current and proposed sections. If the numbers are not 100% in column K, then it's usually because you entered a dollar amount in column B of the Asset Allocator sheet (not the GAAC sheet), and then forgot to distribute the value into the proper asset class(es) to the right. Don't worry about the check numbers now as this is discussed in Step 6. Step 4: Inputting assets. If you're working from paper financial statements, first make piles organized by qualified vs. non-qualified accounts. Then sort them by account (financial institution, or by different account within the same financial institution). Separate all assets into tax-qualified/retirement assets, and personal non-tax-qualified assets. The reason for this is to input everything in a logical fashion, so they show up logically in the reports. It's also helpful to input accounts in alphabetical order, and then assets in alphabetical order within each account. Enter all personal non-tax-qualified assets owned now into the Current Personal section of the Asset Allocator sheet. For the first asset, enter the asset name into cell A7. Then enter the dollar amount of that asset owned into cell B7. If there are multiple accounts that you want to keep separate, then input the account name in A7 and then the first asset into A8. Then when you're done, repeat the process with the tax-qualified assets into the section below (starting in row 20 of the demo). Insert and delete rows as needed to enter all of the assets, and then delete all of the empty rows between the last asset and the total row (rows 15 and 41 in the demo) when you're done so it will look good for printing. Some people like to use empty rows to separate accounts (shown in the demo in row 24). Tip for professionals: At this point in the program (where you've input their current holdings), we like to perform an important step called "Data Confirmation."If you've been doing this for a while, then you know that getting all of the current assets and accounts listed right can be the biggest battle (and no, making this all happen with online electronic data downloads into expensive software does not help, it makes it much worse!). This is where you stop working, you print what you did so far, and then you submit the report back to the client(s), asking them to confirm that what you input so far is correct. This can be done by fax, printed page in the mail, by e-mail, or FTP file download. Most of the time, they will look it over and return it with changes. And most of the time, these changes will be mistakes made on the clients' part, and/or changes in their lives since you got their data. Do not be discouraged by this! Even though this may delay the finished report, this is going to make you a hero to them, because you are doing the job they're paying you for - paying attention to detail, caring about getting things right and updated, and maybe exposing a mistake on their part. When the finished report is submitted, the clients' review and sign off on it and the trades are made without incident, everyone will be happy (especially over time when the better returns start to come in). Most clients have dealt with several financial planners/investment portfolio managers in the past. If you're the first one to do this important work without screwing up, then you'll always have a warm place in their hearts, and will get referrals much easier. This is also assuming that the only financial planning software module you're using for this client is the asset allocation software. If you also have modules like retirement software, then we recommend sending all of the first drafts to them in each of the modules to confirm. So after inputting the data, and then linking them so they will be integrated, get confirmation that everything is good when inputting current data before proceeding to the next steps. Only input the net equity of an investment real estate property. Do not input the market value as you really don't own this much because of the mortgage debt. Also, don't input your personal residence, as this is not an investment. The same with your personal property, vehicles, boats, etc. Only input investment assets. You would only account for these personal items on our Net Worth software. Step 5: Distributing the contents of investment vehicles into asset classes. If you have access to Morningstar, or other investment database software that will give you a breakdown of what asset classes (like a mutual fund) really holds, then you can use that. For example, see row 24 of the demo. That Stock Market Fund assumed the Morningstar Composition section says it holds 2% cash, 48% international stocks, and the rest in large-cap growth stocks. Use basic Excel formulas here to make this easier: Using the demo as an example, enter this formula into cell C23: =B23*0.02 to fill in the 2% cash allocation of that asset. Then in cell I23: =B23*.48 to account for the 48% of the fund held in international stocks (with foreign stocks, it doesn't matter how much is growth or value, nor does size matter). Then since the remaining stocks are assumed to be all large-cap growth stocks, account for the remainder like this in cell H23: =B23-C23-I23 When the accounting is all good, then the check number $0 will appear in cell K43 (not shown in the demo). If you don't know this information, you can just guess at what asset class the investment is really in, and in what percentages. Or you can always just forget about asset distribution and put 100% into the Large-Cap Growth bucket by entering into cell H23: =B23 Doing it like this correctly the first time will make everything automatic when you change the dollar amounts in the future. So even though it takes some tinkering, it will save you time, and having to go back to fix mistakes, later. If you input dollar amounts into columns C through J, then this will cause much confusion, and duplication of effort later on when the dollar amounts of that change. In the long run, it's much better to follow the directions here. You can also get this information from the prospecti, online via the Mutual Fund Family's website, or by calling the fund. Calling always gets the most up-to-date numbers. This is an important step, and the value added is worth trying to get the data, as opposed to just lumping everything from a complex asset into one asset class. But don't make a big fuss over getting it perfect. This is because the numbers you'll get change daily as the mutual fund trades on a daily basis. Getting them down to the nearest 3% is sufficient. The size of the asset also makes it matter more. Don't make a fuss if you have a $100,000 portfolio, and you're trying to get data on a mutual fund worth $5,000. But if you have a $1M portfolio, and the asset is worth $100,000, then it's worth getting the most accurate data. If you don't have access to this data, or don't want to deal with this level of detail, just assume everything holds 5% in cash. Then assume all of these asset classes hold and 10% int'l equity: Large-Cap Value, Large-Cap Growth. Mid-Cap, Small-Cap, and Micro-Cap. Then just distribute everything left over completely into its appropriate asset class column. Repeat this process for the qualified assets in the section below. Now Deal with Column K's Check Numbers: You'll know you did it right when all of the numbers in column K equal zero. If you made a mistake, column K will tell you in which row, and how much you're off by, in dollars. The check numbers should always be zero, and not fixing them will cause other errors in other parts of the program. Each section has a separate check number totaler. The personal assets section's checker is shown in cell K15 (but it's not shown in the demo). At this point, you're done inputting the recommended allocation mix and the current portfolio. These two pie charts, and the data in the Sources and Application of Funds section should now show meaningful information. It's time to move on to making the proposed new portfolio. This is a good time to point out that the best compromise between you doing all of the work, and having us do all of the work, is this: You input all of the current data, and we'll make the proposed part with recommendations. You'd score your Investment Fact Finder, calculate the mix and input it into the Asset Allocator sheet, then input all of your current assets, and then we'd do the rest (including breaking down your current assets into the asset classes it holds). This way you'd get the most accurate asset class breakdowns, fresh mutual fund picks, and the person the invented the program doing the work. Step 6: Set up to make the proposed/new section of the allocation report. After you've entered all of the current assets (both personal and qualified), copy the current assets into the Proposed part of the spreadsheet (using standard Windows copy/paste schemes; e.g., Control C to copy then Control V to paste). First, ensure there are enough rows to accommodate the pasted data. If you make a mistake, and overwrite things, just press Control Z (undo), press escape, insert enough rows, and try again. Using the demo as an example, highlight the range A7 to J14. Copying and pasting the whole row may cause problems, so it's best to only copy the exact range. Then press Control C. Then go to cell A79 and press Control V. That copies all of the current personal assets into the proposed personal section. Repeat for the qualified assets section. Repeat the process for the qualified assets. Check your work at this point by looking at the pie chart section. The Current and Proposed numbers (shown in rows 47 & 49) should be exactly the same, and all three number sections above the pie charts should equal 100% in column K (K47, K48, & K49). If anything doesn't equal 100%, then there is more than likely a problem with your asset distribution (Step 6), and so you'll need to fix your input before proceeding. Don't feel bad if there are lot of things to fix, it's just a normal part of the process. Yes there is a lot more manual tinkering with this investment software, but on the other hand, this is the only asset allocation software that allows this level of control and detail to be accounted for correctly. Everything else just wings it, resulting are lousy high-risk returns. The last section of the Asset Allocation sheet, is called Sources and Applications of Funds (starting in row 150 on the demo). This tells you how much, both in percentages and dollars, need to be moved from one asset class to another to reach the calculated guideline asset allocation mix. All this does is compare the Current mix to Guideline mix (by subtracting row 47 from row 48). Nothing you do on the Proposed section affects this part of the sheet. You can look at the amounts in each asset class as a guide to how much to shuffle around in the Proposed sections. Use these discrepancies to justify your proposed recommendations. Step 7: Set up to make recommendations (sell and buy trades) in the proposed sections. At this point, it's important to remember that the current data input is finished. So you will not be altering anything above the pie chart section anymore. Insert rows at the bottom of each account you're going to trade in to make room to recommend new assets. Each new investment vehicle is going to take up a row, plus add a few rows to play around with. Now in the row at the bottom of each account, input the new assets' name, dollar amounts, and distributions, like you did with the current assets. In the demo, rows 87 - 94 are all newly inserted rows to accommodate the proposed new assets (that were funded by selling the old current assets above in cells 80 - 85). Add new assets, and/or reduce/increase the dollar amounts in the Proposed section until you're happy with the new asset allocation mix (shown on the pie chart section and/or the numbers in row 49 of the demo). How close you get the Proposed portfolio's percentages to the guideline is up to you (and client constraints). They are commonly off by large amounts stemming from multiple reasons. An example would be having a rental property with net equity worth $100,000, when the total investment assets are only worth $500,000, and when the bucket in column J only recommends having 10%. In this case, since they won't sell it, the allocation is just going to have to be off by that much (overweighted by 10% in column J). Leave it like that, so whenever they look at it, they'll be reminded that they have too much in real estate, and that you may think they should sell it off, buy a real estate mutual fund, and let them invest the after-tax proceeds with you. Important!: Ensure the dollar amounts in each account are the same in the Current and Proposed sections. It's easy to end up with money from one account being lost and put into another account during the proposed shuffle. These two check totalers are there when the program is sent, but you want to delete them before printing. In the Personal section of the demo, it would have been in cell B96, and the formula would have compared the totals of the Current Personal section with the Proposed Personal section (=B95-B15). You can always go back to the original file and copy these formulas back in. You can easily duplicate these check totalers to keep the funds in each account correct by using basic Excel summing formulas to keep all this in line as you work. We like to insert a few extra rows while the work is being done to sum each account, so current can be compared with proposed. This works best if you do it all in column A, so it won't affect the sums in column B. For example, using the demo, go to column L and make an account totaler for each account. This example uses Mary's IRA as the first account that gets sold off completely. First, sum this account up in cell L29, =sum(B26:B29) Then when you're shuffling assets in the Proposed section, and adding a new account and assets into cells B114 to B129, do the summing thing again in cell L129, but this time add a subtraction math function to compare the Current vs. Proposed accounts: =sum(B114:B129)-L29 If you don't make a mistake, then this will always be $0. If you do make a mistake, then this $0 will change to the dollar amount of your mistake. Then as you're working, you can keep an eye on all of the accounts to ensure your shuffling isn't putting new money into different accounts. Step 8: Make your proposed recommendations. In the Proposed section, shade all asset rows that have been reduced, or sold off completely, the orange color as shown at the bottom of the page (you can change colors to whatever you like). You don't have to do this, but it makes it flow nicely when processing the bottom lines of what to actually do in your head. This also makes it easier for clients to understand, agree, and then turn recommendations into trades. Shade all new asset rows, and/or current asset rows with increases in them, the blue color. This is an easy way to visualize the recommended changes in asset holdings. The goal is to move things around (buy and sell between Current and Proposed assets) until the new/proposed mix is close enough to the calculated guideline (close enough is up to you and client constraints). To reduce the amounts of current assets held, just reduce the dollar amounts in column B by that amount, or make them zero to sell them off completely. See cells B80 through B85 in the demo. Cell B79 wasn't sold, because John's Gold isn't slated for sale for a few years into the future (and this part of the program is a snapshot only of what's going on at the moment). After you have reduced a bunch of assets, the total dollar amount of reductions will display in the check totaler in cell B96. This is how much you have to work with when it comes to buying new assets (that go into cells B88 to B94 of the demo). NOTE: There are a few more check numbers that should be "$0." They are under both Personal and Qualified Total cells, and also the Grand Total area of the Proposed section(s) that compares the Current totals to the Proposed totals. This just compares the total dollar amount of Current assets vs. Proposed, and shows the difference so you can see how much your input was off, so no money disappears or magically appears. When they are equal, they will all show $0. If it's not, you made a mistake somewhere and need to fix it. How much it's off will show until all of the errors are fixed and it says $0. When you're done, just delete all three $0s of the check totalers so they won't show up on the printed report. You can also hide column K, or change the font color to white so they'll still be there, just won't show or print. Important! Please note that our mutual fund screening process does not look into when large capital gains distributions are about to occur. This usually happens in late fall. So before buying a mutual fund in a non-tax-qualified account, you should call the fund family and ask when they expect this to happen. The problem here is that if you buy a mutual fund in a non-tax-qualified account, and then there's a large capital gains distribution, you pay tax on that and get no benefit (other than the increase in basis), because the value of the shares will fall by around the same amount. You should wait until after this distribution occurs before buying the mutual fund. Ignoring this can cause lots of annoying trouble for advisors that should know better! About Using 22 Asset Classes (and mutual fund picks) with the Eight asset Class Buckets As you can see, the asset allocation software only uses eight major asset classes, and we screen mutual funds for 21 asset classes (cash makes 22). Here's the story on that: Asset allocation is a science as well an art form. This way of doing things allows you to utilize the science as well as being the artist. How one distributes the 21 asset classes into the eight asset class buckets is more of an art than science. The color-coding and arrangement of the major asset classes makes it easier to understand. Asset classes go from safe to risky as you read left to right. Also, safer asset classes are cool blue and risky assets are danger red. The science says that the first bond bucket (U.S. Government (not agency) & Investment Grade U.S. Corporate Bonds) is a safer asset class. It also reveals that the correlation coefficients between the these kinds of bonds and other asset classes are low, producing great diversification benefits. However, the (three) types of bonds that fit into this bucket all behave too similarly to be worthy of making a separate bucket for them. So it's up to the artist to divvy them up depending on the client's particular circumstances. This is now a good time to stop and read our page that explains the differences between the five risk tolerance categories, here. For example, if one is Conservative, then Short-term bonds (with higher quality ratings) should be used more. If one is more Aggressive, then more longer term and Multisector bonds should be utilized. In the bucket, High Yield, Int'l, Agency, Zero Coupon, and All Other Bonds, Int'l Bonds are used more than High-Yield and Emerging Market Bonds for Conservative investors. Emerging Market Bonds are more for growth, and High-yield is more for income. Both are for the more Aggressive investor. If the account is large, then both Mid-cap Value and Large-cap Value should be utilized in the High to Medium Yield & Value Style Stocks (U.S. Large- & Mid-Cap) bucket. Value provides more income than growth, so it should be used more for Conservative investors, and when income is needed. The same goes with Low to No Yield & Growth Style Stocks (U.S. Large- & Mid-Cap). Mid-cap is a little more risky then Large-cap. Large-cap also typically provides more income yield. In general, the larger the stock, the safer. Small- and Micro-cap stocks are for the more Aggressive investor. Sector funds, like Technology, Biotech, and Internet, are also more risky. In the bucket, Int'l Stocks, Emerging Markets, & Other Int'l Equities, more Int'l All-cap Blend assets should be used if one is Conservative. If one is Aggressive, more Int'l Small-cap and Emerging Markets should be used. Yes, you should always invest the recommended amounts into international assets even if you are a conservative investor, as these asset classes do fairly well most of the time when U.S. markets are down. In the bucket, Small-Cap, Precious Metals, Sector Funds, Real Estate, LPs, Misc. Equities, the asset classes utilized for more Conservative investors would be Real Estate, Tangibles, and US Small-cap. The more Aggressive investors would utilize more Micro-cap, Internet, Technology, Biotech, Venture Capital Private Placements, etc. If one is Moderate, then a smartly-balanced mix of all 22 asset classes should be utilized (if the account has enough money to buy them all, of course. If not, then the, Model Portfolios may be a better tool to use). The following list shows more details on how the 22 asset classes fit into the eight major asset classes in the asset allocation software:
Step 10: Printing. Tips for printing in Excel are here. First use Print Preview to see how many pages it wants to print. That, or going to View, Header and Footer, will make the printing dashed lines appear, so you can see what will print on each page. Cut this number in half, and then use Print... to tell it to only print that many pages. If you just click Print, then it will print all of the pages with the check zeros, which is annoying. Use this method of printing for all of the following sheets. You can also hide the check numbers, by just hiding column K before printing. Basically, use Print Preview to control the pages you want to print so it won't print a bunch or blank pages. Tinker with the graphs (rows 50 - 75) until everything is the way you like them. You will always need to tinker with the graphs because Excel hasn't figured out how to make nice graphs automatically yet, or keep the pies the same size after you save the and re-open the file. Detailed instructions on how to cope with Excel pie charts are here. After you have implemented the new asset allocations in your portfolio, your proposed allocation now becomes your current portfolio. So you may want to copy the contents of the proposed portfolio into the current section, and then save that using a different file name. This is basically it for creating an asset allocation report. The rest of the process, return/forecasting may not be needed for some people, so you may want to stop here to save time and work. Step 11: Forecasting portfolios into the future at the asset level. Go to the Asset Returns sheet. Its purpose is to see weighted and unweighted returns of all portfolios' given rates of return input for each individual asset. In other words, you input returns for each individual asset, and it show the whole portfolios' annual returns. Then the asset class weightings from the Asset Allocator sheet ties everything together to display portfolio results. Results display on the Graphs and Asset Forecaster sheets. Copy all of the Current and Proposed asset names and dollar amounts into the white part of the sheet. The current part of demo is C5 : D12 and the proposed part is I5 : K20. To start copying, go to cell A5, input the equal sign, click the Asset Allocator sheet tab, then click on the first row with an asset listed - or cell A7 (unless you added or deleted rows already). Then press enter. Do the same with cell B5 of the Asset Returns sheet. When you have these two cells populated correctly, drag them down the sheet to copy all of your input from the Asset Allocator sheet. In case this is new to you, the drag handle is the little black box at the bottom right of the cell. Input your estimated future rates of return for all assets, into column C, as shown in the demo. Make sure you have a dollar amount and a rate of return for all assets with non-zero dollar values. The formulas for doing most of the work on this sheet are in columns G/H and O/P. They are supposed to be hidden before printing because it's not something you want to show on the printed report. If you're inserting and deleting rows, then you want to ensure these formulas are still intact when you're done. Just unhide those rows and see if any formulas are missing. If they are, then you can just drag them up or down to replace them. This will automatically generate the portfolio return numbers, shown in rows 108 - 112 and 221 - 225 of the demo. Ensure that there are formulas showing in columns D, E, L, and M in the last rows you're working with. If you have a lot of assets, and you inserted rows, then you'll need to drag those formulas down too to populate the new rows. Don't forget to reformat the top and bottom borders after you've done this so the top border is bold (row 107). When it's all good, rehide columns G, H, O, & P. When you've checked things over to see if basic things are right (like the totals add up to 100%), then this part is done. Print. Go to the next sheet to the right - Asset Forecaster. Input the current year into cell C5. The rest is automatic, and you just print pages 1 - 4. Step 12: If you want to use the Asset Class Returns Forecaster sheet, input estimated future rates of return for all of the asset classes into the green-shaded cells in row 6 (C6 - J6 and U6 - AB6). The point of this page is to grow both portfolios over time using the asset class returns input and weightings from the Asset Allocator sheet. You normally want to use slightly higher numbers in the Proposed sections because you're on the ball and can do better than they have in the past. The rest is automatic, so just print. Results display on the Graphs sheet. Step 13: Forecasting portfolios into the future at the asset class level. The purpose, for example, is to be able to change the allocation weights and returns to account for things like being more conservative when retired, while accounting for contributions and withdrawals. This is actually the retirement software's job, but this will help give you a basic idea of what will happen without having to buy that module. If you want to use the detailed 75-year cash flow data input, ensure you input the current year into cell C5 of the Asset Forecaster sheet. Also, the first year's asset class return data needs to be input into the Asset Class Returns Forecaster sheet. Then switch to the Future Data Input sheet. This allows you to add future contributions and withdrawals, while being able to change the allocation weights and returns in any year. Columns D - K and N - U are where you change the annual asset class mixes. Columns Z - AG and AI - AP are where you change the asset class rates of returns. Columns AT through BA are where you input annual contributions and withdrawals. The first two large areas are where you input each year's changes in asset allocation mix (columns D through K and N through U). If you leave any cell blank, or input zero, then it will default to the first year's allocation weights. The first year's numbers in row 7 come from the Asset Allocator sheet, and can only be changed there. Don't input negative numbers in this section, as it will cause errors. Remember to keep an eye on the check columns - L and V. if your input doesn't add up to 100%, then it will tell you. So if it adds up to 90%, then you forgot to add 10% somewhere. The next two areas (columns Z - AG and AI - AP) are where you input the annual rates of return for each asset class in each year. If you want to use a zero rate of return, you'll need to input a tiny number, like 0.001% so it won't detect a zero and use the default rate. You can use negative rates of returns here. The first year's returns are hard set to be what they are in the Asset Class Returns Forecaster sheet, and can only be changed there. The last section (columns AT - BA) is where you input the annual contributions and/or withdrawals from each asset class for every year. Input negative numbers for withdrawals and positive for contributions. If you don't want to favor an asset class, and want to withdraw or contribute to the portfolio equally, then divide the annual number by eight, and input the same numbers into each asset class. The point is to input your expected cash flows, so that the future values of all of the portfolios will display on the Graphs sheet. Step 14: How to tinker with the Graphs sheet to show the range of years you want so see: They are currently set to show the first 25 years of data. More than that makes it too hard to see, and that's pretty far into the future to be forecasting investments anyway. Here's how to change the graph's data range, so you can make it show any range of years you want within the 75-year window: Click inside the middle of the top left chart. If nothing shows up in the formula bar (where you edit formulas), then press the up or down arrow until it does. See the data ranges $B$83:$B$107 and $G$83:$G$107? That's a 25-year range. To change it to a 50-year range, change these numbers to $B$83:$B$132 and $G$83:$G$132 You'll need to change all of the ranges in all of data series too. So on the first two top charts, after you change one series, press the up or down arrow until the next series shows up, and repeat. You can see what's going on as you do it. The ranges where it gets the data are hidden on the Asset Class Returns Forecaster sheet, so it's a little hard to tell which rows correspond to what year. So here's some help: Year #1 (current year) is row 83. Year 5 is row 87, year 10 is row 92, year 15 is row 97, year 20 is row 102, year 25 is row 107, year 30 is row 112, year 50 is row 132, year 75 is row 157. The difference between unweighted portfolio return and weighted investment portfolio returns: Numbers in the unweighted returns column are just the eight rates of return added up and divided by eight. This is not a good way to look at it because if you have $1 million in one asset class, and $1 in another, both rates are treated equally. Weighting makes the money in the $1 million asset class a million times more important in calculating the true portfolio returns. That's about it. After you tinker with it for a while, the light bulb will pop on over your head and see what it's all about, and you'll be adding new graphs and all that customizing to make it your own. The Portfolio Statistics Sheet This sheet calculates most all of the popular investment ratios and statistics people like to see. It's more for investment professionals, but even the novice investor can get some use out of it. After you input a series of monthly rate of return numbers (all portfolio software like this works based on monthly returns) for the one asset you're interested in, it will calculate the asset's: º Correlation coefficients (r) compared to the S&P 500, Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, the MSCI EAFE Int'l stock index, and a custom benchmark index that's totally under your control. Just think U.S. stocks, bonds, and int'l stocks. Calculating these numbers was the main reason for building the sheet - to let you input assets and see how they've moved compared to these three major asset classes over time frames that you can select (on a quarterly basis going back to 1976). This is the major factor that goes into deciding whether or not the adding the asset will make an investment portfolio better or worse (AKA more efficient or optimized). If it has low correlations, and decent returns, then adding the asset to the portfolio will reduce the portfolio's overall risk, while more than likely increasing its returns, at the same time. º Average, median, minimum, maximum rates of return over the selected time frame, along with the standard deviation of monthly returns. The most important one here is the standard deviation. The higher the number, the more "risky" it is. º Beta, Alpha (Jensen), R-squared, Treynor Ratio, and Sharpe Ratio (using the S&P 500 as the benchmark index and a rate of return for the risk-free asset that you input). Data has already been input for the three major asset class benchmark indices going back to February 1976. But to keep in updated, you'll need to input current month's data into the green-shaded cells starting about F34. The numbers to input are the percentage change in the index or asset, from the prior month. Sorry, but there's no reliable source you can get for free online that can be recommended. There are hundreds of sources, like just taking the end of month values from the newspaper. We can do this for you at the consulting rates here. The asset you input into column Q is called the Custom Reference Asset (for lack of a better name). This is the asset that you're curious about. Most people familiar with portfolio statistics know what they are and what they're for. So they want to know things like, what the correlation coefficient and beta is compared to the S&P 500, and what the standard deviation is compared to bonds. If you're considering adding or deleting an asset (stock, bond, mutual fund, ETF, doesn't matter), to a portfolio, then it's good to know if it will go up more when the S&P500 goes up, down more when it goes down, by how much, any combination of that, what the standard deviation/beta, of it is, etc. This will calculate these basic statistics just as well as software costing dozens of times more, but you have to input all of the monthly returns going back to the start of your time horizon. First determine how much data (monthly rate of return numbers) you have or want to use for the reference asset. The actual Moderate Model Portfolio was used in the demo, and all of the data was input since its inception in January 1999. First, delete all of that input in the green-shaded areas. Once you've made that decision, input the earliest month into cell D6 in this format: 1/1/99. The "1" in the middle represents the first day of the month, and has to be there because of Excel's limitation when it comes to working with dates. If you're getting errors it's probably because you didn't use the exact format required. Also, for years in the 21st century, you have to input the whole year like this 1/1/2007 or Excel will think it's 1907 if you input 1/1/7 or 1/1/07. Next input the current T-Bill (money market or CD) rate, or whatever you want to use for the risk-free asset's rate of return into cell D5. If you don't know what this is, or what to use, just input 5%. Then input how much money you want to use as the starting value of all of the investment vehicles into cell D7. This is needed for the graphs sheet. This value is used as the first year's starting value for everything, and is then compounded by all of the subsequent monthly rates of return. So if you input 1/1/99 as the first month into cell D6, and $10,000 into cell D7, as shown in the demo, it will assume $10,000 was deposited into everything on 1/1/99, and that's what will compound in columns E/H/K/N/& Q. These are the columns of numbers used on the graph sheet. Now input your monthly return data into column R. It's best to start at the beginning month and work your way up. If you don't input anything into a month, then it will be treated as 0% for the month. Ensure to account for every month up to the current month. Input negative rates of return with a minus sign. Once you've input your data, the statistics are automatically generated. If you input a date earlier than the first month of monthly returns, then you'll get an error saying not to do that. The data shown from F13 - N13, and all of column Q/R will be wrong, but everything else will be okay. You can change the date input into cell D6 to any month after the first month of custom reference data you input, and it will work just fine. Going back more than five years is less meaningful the further you go back when it comes to correlation coefficients and other statistics, because the world changed too much since then. There is no perfect time to look back to, and even Bill Sharpe changes his mind periodically (he said seven years in the 90's then changed it to five more recently). The Custom Benchmark Index (column O): Use this if you want to input another benchmark in addition to the SP&500, Bonds, and Int'l stocks. All you need to do is find and input the data, and statistics will show in cells N/O13 - 18 just like the other three indices. Everything will be blank in the statistics cells until data is input. Select which one of the four benchmarks you want to use to base the reference asset's statistics on by using the drop-down menu in cell L24. Then the data in cells Q20 - 24 will reflect the custom reference asset's stats based on that benchmark. There's no long-winded explanations about what the statistics are, or what they're good for, because this page is already too long, and you can just do a search and enough information will come up to give you a headache. There's also more than enough explanation to understand correlation coefficients (r) and what this is used for in portfolio optimizers, in the text that explains the asset allocation reports: click here to download it. The Portfolio Statistics Graphs The portfolio statistic's graphs were put on a separate sheet so the protection won't interfere with changing the date ranges and other alterations. You can alter date ranges to see similar graphical information as Ibbotson's "Growth of $10,000 since a very long time ago" for the S&P 500, Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, MSCI EAFE Int'l stock index, a custom benchmark that you can use, and the inputted custom reference asset. The data table (that you can see on the main sheet) goes back to 1976 for them, so you can see how these markets have done compared to each other (and the custom reference asset, which is the actual Moderate Model Portfolio shown here). To change the date ranges, click on one of the colored sections of the chart. A long formula will appear in the formula bar. The middle and last series of numbers are just the ranges of the month name, and the amount of money the index has grown to. For example, the demo comes with the range D35 to D123. If you go to the Portfolio Statistics sheet, you'll see that row 123 corresponds to January 1999. So if you wanted to see the whole historical performance of something going back to 1976, just change the ranges to 35-398. Just remember to change the date ranges for all (five) graph series if you're tinkering with the top graph that shows all five together. The title of the graphs say Growth of $10,000, so you'll probably want to change that. Just click on it and type what you want it to say. The names on the little squares at the bottom can be changed by editing the far left part of the formula after the word, "SERIES( Just keep in mind that is has to be in quotes. If you mess up editing a graph formula, you'll know because you'll get the red error window when you hit return. Just press the escape key and try again. You're free to alter the graphs any way you want, as there is no protection. Making Customized Asset Allocation Mixes You can ignore the automated calculation sheets, and manually create your own asset allocation mixes. The sheet to do this is at the fir right. There are three sheets, just like there are for the automated ones. You'll need to fill in all of the numbers manually. When that's done, and then choose which one row in each of the five sections applies to the client's life. For example, if someone's risk tolerance category scored Moderate, then first shade all of the cells in the Moderate row. Then unshade the row it was before. For example, if they plan to retire in the next year, then use the Retired Guideline Mix Calc GAAC sheet. The biggest reason for this is that moving from a working to a retired investment portfolio usually means restructuring it for both less risk and income generation. If you do that now, and the market goes down between now and when they actually retire, then you're going to be a hero. The worst that can happen is a major bull market. If this happens, don't worry - you're using asset allocation! This means that you're going still to participate in the bull market, just not as much as you would have. Putting a 1 in column B in the Moderate row will automatically add up the numbers in each of the five sections (and eight asset class columns), and put the totals in the bottom line (Allocation Guideline) in either row 42 or 43. Ensure there is only one 1 in each of the five life factor sections. Note: There is a totaler cell at the bottom right (cell K42 or K43) that is probably not adding up to 100%, and you're confused about that. That's because putting the 1's in column B won't add the two blue bond asset class columns. This is because it's a judgment call on your part whether to use municipal or federally taxable bonds. You'd make this call mostly based on their tax bracket, but you also want to consider other factors, such as after-tax yield, risk, and how they feel about it. So you have to add these up manually. For example, if you were only working with a client's IRA, then you wouldn't use any municipal bonds. So if the totaler cell is 80%, then manually put 20% in the blue-colored bottom line cell in the generic bond asset class column. If it's a personal portfolio only, and they're in a high-tax bracket (28% or over), then put the 20% into municipal bonds (if putting all of their fixed-income allocation into municipal bonds is what you want to do). If it's a combination personal and qualified portfolio, then use your judgment on how much municipal bonds and generic bonds to use. This is one of the areas in investment management where people working manually do a better job than letting a computer program take over. So there's really no way to have the program calculate this automatically, and have it do a good job. If you're experienced with other asset allocation calculators, then you know that the programming rarely gets the taxable vs. tax-free bond allocation right. So it's best to use your human judgment. The totaler cell will add up to 100% when you're done, and when everything is working right. Tip: To input the results into the Asset Allocator sheet correctly the first time, first copy the data from the GAAC sheet (cells C42 to J42 or C43 to J43) by highlighting it and pressing control C, or however you like to copy. Then instead of doing what you usually do to paste, do this: After copying, highlight where you want to paste into (in the demo, it's cells C48 to J48 on the Asset Allocator sheet). Then go to the Edit menu. Choose Paste Special, and then choose Values only from the Paste section, then click OK. This will paste the data right the first time without having to mess with Excel glitches, like colors changing on you. You can also change the names of the asset classes, the numbers, or anything to whatever you want. The numbers in the matrix are the actual percentage numbers used for each of the eight major asset classes. So if the Cash asset class has a total of 10%, then that's how much they should have in Cash/Bank accounts/Money Market Funds, etc. The bottom line answer from this sheet (Row 42) is then input (copied) into row 48 of the Asset Allocator sheet. This sheet determines the mix of asset classes that is currently held, and then compares it to the calculated guideline, so you can make changes (recommend buy and sells to reach the guideline). This is shown at the bottom in the Sources and Applications of Funds section. If the row changed from row 48, it's the Guideline Allocation row between the Current/Old Allocation and the Proposed/New Allocation rows directly above the pie charts. So far, all you've done is manually do Step 1 is select which one of the three GAAC calculators to use. Now go back to Step 2 above. Now manually copy and paste these numbers into the Asset Allocator sheet's Guideline Mix section. How to Rebalance Quarterly Rebalancing is the technical asset allocation term that basically means this: At certain pre-defined intervals, you reshuffle asset class (mutual fund) amounts back to their original recommended asset allocation weights. Research shows the most effective time frame is quarterly. This must occur in order to get most of the benefits of asset allocation! Explanation in English: Say you are brand new to the investment allocation and you're starting with $100,000, and you scored Moderate risk temperament. The allocation for Large-Cap Growth is 15%. This does not change in response to market moves, so you are eliminating market timing by keeping the percentage of your total assets in the Large-Cap Growth asset class at 15%. This would be impractical and expensive to do monthly, so it's only done at the beginning of every new quarter (or when the weighting for that asset class changes - which rarely happens anymore). Tip: Since millions of people, and automated computer programs, are rebalancing at the same time, you may want to pick a different day to rebalance than the first day of the new quarter. You may make a few extra bucks by doing it a week before the new quarter. That way when people are selling things that went up, you'd be selling before everyone else, which means there will be less downward pressure on prices. And if you're buying asset classes that went down, doing it before everyone else will allow you to buy before everyone else, again beating the upward pressure. So in this example, you would initially buy $15,000 of the Large-Cap Growth mutual fund. Say at the end of the current quarter, this Large-Cap Growth mutual fund has grown to $20,000, but due to the other asset classes losing money, your total portfolio is still $100,000. You are now overweighted in the Large-Cap Growth asset classes by 5% or $5,000. Since the total portfolio is still $100,000 you have to also be underweighted in other asset classes. So you need to sell $5,000 of this Large-Cap Growth mutual fund, and put (reallocate) these funds into the asset classes (mutual funds) that went down over the quarter. Assume everything else is flat, but the Generic Bond and Small-Cap asset classes are both down 2.5% each. In order to bring your total allocation in these two asset classes back up to normal, you would take $2,500 and buy more of the Generic Bond's mutual fund, and also add $2,500 to the Small-Cap mutual fund. You are now back to the original asset allocation Weights, and this is called rebalancing. One of the best advantages in the methodology is that it forces you to eliminate all of the emotion, market timing, gut feeling, intuition, tips, and all of the other things in the investment world that end up losing more money than it makes. It forces you to sell some of the asset class that has went up recently, and at the same time, it forces you to buy more of the asset classes that have went down recently. The #1 saying in Wall Street is to buy low and sell high - and this is the best methodology ever invented to be sure you're always doing that, without having to fret over it. In other words, just do it, when you're supposed to, regardless of how you "feel" about it! In reality, since the dollar amounts will be smaller for most people, it may be impractical to buy and sell mutual funds with these small amounts. If you're investing your own money, then it's your call on whether the trades are worth it in terms of trading coasts and taxes. Professionals had the added problem of people complaining about various things, even when they're doing everything right. A more detailed explanation of what to do about all of this is below. Even though this may seem like a strange way to do things, it is very old hat in the investment world, is taught in every real investment school, and is practiced by the majority of financial planners and professional investment managers (although not very well, and most financial consultant's asset allocations are very mismanaged and therefore are very misleading, meaning you're not going to get the returns they showed you). So you very much need to pay attention to rebalancing to get most of the benefits of asset allocation. If you bought support, then you can ask questions at any time. The best questions are from people who ask if they should switch mutual funds and rebalance when they get their monthly mutual fund picks and investing model updates. You can send details of your situation and you'll get a Real World answer back. About Switching Mutual Funds when They're Changed One of the mutual fund screening criteria is to weed out funds that have back-end redemption fees, (B shares). So unless there's a Morningstar error, or you made a trading mistake, there won't be any back-end loads or redemption fees to worry about when you switch mutual funds (so the only costs to selling a fund will be the trading costs and capital gains taxes). Recently some mutual funds have restrictions on hold long you have to hold a fund before you can sell it, or they ding you in certain ways. This is too complex to give generic advice, so if you bought support, then send an e-mail explaining your situation and you'll get an answer back. If you don't have support, then you'll have to make a judgment call on your own. Sorry, there's no screening function in Morningstar yet for this (we asked in 2006 and they said they would think about it). It's impossible to give exact advice about when to switch a mutual fund, because there are too many factors to consider. The purpose of switching funds is to use a fund that will behave most like the asset class going forward. The new mutual fund is not intended to "go up" the most. The new mutual fund is intended to act like the asset class the most, and at the same time, go up more than that asset class when that asset class is going up, and go down less than the asset class when that asset class is going down - over the next year or so. This isn't a Morningstar-type firm, where they get paid-off to tout a mutual fund (or mutual fund family) as being "the hottest thing since the invention of the wheel." In general, it's usually best to switch the mutual fund in the Real World when a switch is made. It's also always best to not put any new money into the old mutual fund after the switch. However, there are numerous Real World obstacles when it comes to switching mutual funds. So the first thing to do when you look at the spreadsheet Fund Picks.xls, is to look at the reason for the fund change. More details are in the comment section of that cell, and will display when you hover your mouse over it.If a fund was sold because it closed, then it's best to keep it. The reasons for funds closing usually are not bad. You won't be able to add brand new money to a closed fund, but most of the time, you can add money to a fund if it's already held before it closed. This is fine. Just be aware that the fund will be off the screening radar, so if it goes bad in the future, you won't be notified. You can get an opinion on it for $9 as explained here. If the fund was sold because its style or asset class drifted or changed, then it's best to change the mutual fund. Ditto with new fund managers. If the mutual fund changed because of "performance," then you'd most always want to make the switch, as something bad happened to the mutual fund over the last month or so, and experience has proved that it won't magically fix itself, so the new fund most always does better going forward. Mutual fund families (the overall mutual fund company name, like Janus) will most always pull shenanigans with their mutual funds if they think they can make more money. So they let the mutual fund managers change the stated objective of the mutual fund without changing the mutual fund's investing strategy. Fortunately, Principia's screening filter will catch most of these shenanigans. Mutual funds that use deceptive marketing tricks are most always screened out of the results. The best reason to make a switch is when the reason is performance related. But at the same time, the difference in performance between the old and new fund may be so small that it may be impractical to switch. This is where you want to carefully read the longer explanation given in the cell comments. If you have support, then you can ask about it. More Real World factors to consider are: ▪ If the clients' holdings are small, then the ticket charges may be too big as a percentage to make it feasible to switch. For example, if the holding is $1,000 and it costs $20 to make a trade, then it's going to cost 4% to make the switch (2% for the sell and 2% for the new buy). This is too painful for most people, so you have to consider that. ▪ If the account has recently had a lot of trades, then the client could be annoyed with all of the trades. ▪ If the client is adverse to trades in general, then that needs to be considered. ▪ If your BD's compliance department is watching your activity, and giving your grief about trading too much, then having to waste time explaining trades to them would be a factor too. ▪ If the client is happy with your services, then switching will go better than if the client is grumpy. Unless they're grumpy about performance... then you can say you're making the trades to get better performance (which is truly the whole point of switching anyway). Sometimes the client will be happy if you do anything but nothing, and making trades to get rid of bad performing investments, is doing something. ▪ If you have full discretion, then it's easier to make fund changes than if you don't. If you have to make a million phone calls, or send out letters/e-mails, to get permission to trade, then that's a huge factor. It's up to you whether to go through all of that to make trades. Some Broker Dealer's are slowly getting with the program of asset allocation, and have come up the concept of "limited discretion." This means that if you're practicing asset allocation, then they'll let you make switches without having to notify the client when you are rebalancing. The trick is to always use buzzwords that your compliance people will understand - and "asset allocation rebalancing" is one of them. That usually gets them out of your hair the quickest. ▪ Obviously making trades costs time, money, work, and has various risks involved (the risk of making a trading mistake, and then having to waste time fixing it, is always lurking about). So it's up to you whether it's worth it or not. This is a complex issue, so if you purchased e-mail or phone support, feel free to tell your story and you'll get personalized advice. You are not bothering us, we want to hear from you and help you manage your models as well as possible. How To Create Model Portfolios You can read more about what model portfolios are here. Assuming that you now know what they are, here's how to do it using this Comprehensive Asset Allocation Software: First you input a recommend mix of asset classes into the Guideline Allocation row on the Asset Allocator sheet. You can make them up yourself, or you can use the results of the existing calculation matrix sheets. Then input the assets you want to fund the asset classes with into the Proposed section of the Asset Allocator sheet, as described above. This is now pretty much the same thing as a model allocation - because it exists before it's invested in. Now save the file using a name that represents the model - like Moderate Model. Now whenever you want to work with a moderate model, you can just open and use it. You can ignore the current section, where you input current assets to get a comparison, or you can leave them blank. Or you can use the program normally, other than calculating the mix on a custom basis. Nothing is protected, so you can make any changes you want to. Some generic advice about the mechanics of money management and trading is here. |
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